Through the fog of war from a keyhole

New surveillance technologies provide the ability to observe, detect, and target with much greater precision and effectiveness. Thanks to mass production, the cost of such technologies is significantly more affordable compared to traditional high-tech military equipment. This in turn creates opportunities and shifts the balance models of warfare. As in boxing, warfare also requires good coordination between the eyes, feet, and hands. The more precise the technologies become, the more important their compatibility and coordination also become.

Through the fog

Disinformation has been one of the Kremlin’s most effective weapons, aimed at derailing democratic free societies. A large volume of skillfully placed false information clouds people’s understanding and sows division among defenders. Capabilities developed in the commercial world, such as Earth observation satellites, make it possible to tell a story closer to the truth. Ukrainian leaders have skillfully applied this tool from the very start of the war. Relevant, up-to-date information is a weapon that is critical for reaching consensus in democratic countries. Military aid to Ukraine hangs by a thread when citizens of Western countries feel the effects of inflation; but that aid becomes more secure when convincing evidence can be provided—for example, confirming the atrocities in Bucha. Similarly, Estonian-produced Threod drones, with their cameras, enabled the identification and documentation of the mining of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, leaving no doubt about the methods and calculations of the Russian Federation.

Through the keyhole

A good example of coordination is the use of HIMARS multiple rocket launchers together with reconnaissance drones. Thanks to their mobility, HIMARS units can be quickly repositioned, and drones providing long-range observation help locate enemy positions for fire control without revealing their own location. By adding dozens of cheap decoy rockets alongside precision missiles, the enemy’s operators are forced to decide within seconds whether to risk spending a few million on air-defense missiles or to gamble that HIMARS rockets are not among them.

If such elegant coordination is lacking—whether due to technical shortcomings, low morale, or poor training—the results can be tactics that violate the Geneva Convention. Nighttime satellite images of Ukraine before and after missile strikes on infrastructure vividly illustrate how, metaphorically, a disoriented bear entered the boxing ring carrying a knife.

In battle, everyone learns—even terrorists

The longer the conflict drags on, the better the enemy learns to understand Western technology and its associated tactical peculiarities. To exploit these, new technologies and methods are deployed in return, equalizing conditions on the battlefield. Bayraktar-type strike drones were extremely effective in the early phase of the war. It is possible that the Turkish-advertised technology designed to deceive ground radars worked. Since the summer, however, the situation has changed, and it appears that Russian occupiers have shot down a considerable number of Bayraktars.

Better victory sooner than later

Reports suggest that HIMARS multiple rocket launchers remain highly effective. This could indicate that Russian radars are still unable to adequately distinguish the radar profiles of HIMARS rockets from cheaper rockets. It is possible that no suitable detection algorithms have yet been developed for their air-defense radars. Over time, however, Russian forces also learn. If we want Ukraine to win the war with minimal losses and cost, and if we want the HIMARS systems procured for Estonia to serve as a credible deterrent in our own defense plans, then Ukraine must be supported so that the war is won sooner rather than later.

Let us give Ukraine’s defenders eyes

In light of the above, we call on everyone to donate “eyes” to Ukraine’s defenders—reconnaissance drones that provide intelligence on the enemy’s war machinery committing war crimes in Ukraine. We are raising funds to procure Estonian-produced Threod drones, which carry out vital reconnaissance and fire control for Ukrainian fighters. Threod drones, made in Estonia, have already proven themselves in this war and, according to Ukrainians, have been of exceptional help.

This article is supported by NATO

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